And I view both fighters as relatively safe parlay pieces, provided they both can avoid a knockout loss at the hands of powerful but less skilled opponents. I paired Kattar (at -230) in a plus-money (+103) parlay with Kyle Daukaus (at -240) at a slight edge which is still available at DraftKings. However, I suspect Emmett’s cardio may be underrated, if anything, considering that fighters who carry a ton of power typically experience a drop-off when they hit Round 3 – whereas Emmett has excelled. Kattar to win in Round 4 (+2000) or Round 5 (+2500) could be worthy dart throws, considering Emmett’s question marks in the championship rounds. I don’t project value on either side of the total – expecting this fight to go the distance about half the time (51%), with most of that assumption tied to an early finish for Emmett or a late finish for Kattar.Īnd I don’t see value on any winning method props, though Kattar by decision (projected +157, listed +125) and Emmett by knockout (projected +584, listed +425) seem like pretty binary outcomes. While I would probably bet Emmett at this price in a three-round fight, I have difficulty projecting him to win a decision against a high-paced fighter in a five-round affair, and I couldn’t put his finish probability past 17.5% (+471 implied) overall. I projected Calvin Kattar as a 71.4% favorite in this fight (-242 implied) odds, and I show slight value on his moneyline depending upon the book, though it’s a relatively small edge. Additionally, Kattar has proven a strong counter-wrestler (89% takedown defense) who can mix in some offensive grappling.ĭespite his powerful fighting style, Emmett has pretty decent cardio. Moreover, since he has to manage his gas tank for five rounds, I doubt that Emmett will expend energy pursuing takedowns early neither his top control nor his jiu-jitsu is particularly high-level for the UFC. He’s a former collegiate wrestler, but he’s rarely used his wrestling on the offensive end at the UFC level (1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy), with eight of his ten career takedowns coming in one fight (against Scott Holtzman, in 2016). In theory, Emmett may possess the grappling upside in this fight. Still, unless he can put Kattar away or score knockdowns in three of the five rounds, Emmett may have difficulty winning this fight because Kattar will primarily lead the dance and control the action. ![]() While Kattar has proven himself one of the most durable fighters in any weight class, Emmett’s power is an outlier I suspect he’ll hurt Kattar early in this fight. He utilizes his strong lower half to sit down on his punches and times his counters well, which has consistently wobbled the opposition. Pound-pound-pound, Emmett is one of the biggest punchers in the UFC. He also has the Featherweight record for total knockdowns (11). ![]() That could lead to a knockout win - or multiple knockdowns - for Emmett, who averages 2.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes, second-most in Featherweight history behind Conor McGregor (2.31). He’s very hittable but often relies on superior durability while brawling with opponents. ![]() That said, Kattar absorbs a lot of damage too. Still, Kattar is a sound boxer who hits extremely hard -particularly with his elbows – and he’s generally able to put a pace on his opponents. ![]() Kattar is headlining a UFC card for his fourth consecutive bout, following a loss to Max Holloway and a dominant win over Giga Chikadze.Įmmett is riding a four-fight winning streak and will enter a five-round fight for the first time since 2014 - when he competed for a title on the west coast regional circuit.īelow, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the main event. 4 ranked contender Calvin Kattar, and No. Josh Emmett Odds Kattar OddsĪ future Featherweight title challenger could emerge from Saturday’s main event between No.
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